World Tour

Time-Aware Bradley–Terry
Rider Rankings

Partial-pairing Bradley–Terry model with calendar-time σ inflation and race-importance τ scaling. Each rider has a (μ, σ) at every point in time across 8 discipline tracks, plus a cross-discipline cumulative score.

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Riders ranked

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Races modelled

Discipline tracks

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Date range

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Last update

Track

μ−2σ safe

Timeline

SNAPSHOT —

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Track + safe toggle drive every panel. The timeline drives the rating chart, the snapshot Top 10 and the head-to-head — but not the all-time sections (those always span the full period).

Rider rating · All races μ · normal

Top 10 · at snapshot

Head-to-head · All races —

Win probability uses the Thurstone–Mosteller (Bradley–Terry) link: P(A beats B) = Φ( (μA − μB) / √(2β² + σA² + σB²) ). σ already enters the denominator, so the probability is independent of the safe/normal toggle — it reflects the model's genuine uncertainty. β = —. Evaluated live at the selected snapshot for any tracked rider.

WIN PROB

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The #1 club · All races every rider who ever held #1 · full period

Who wore the #1 jersey — and for how long

Greatest of all time · All races highest peak ever recorded · full period

Time-Aware Bradley–TerryRider Rankings

Time-Aware Bradley–Terry
Rider Rankings